For the entertainment business, coronavirus brings cancellations, confusion and chaos - The Washington Post

For the entertainment business, coronavirus brings cancellations, confusion and chaos - The Washington Post

With the novel coronavirus spreading, companies are scrambling to reschedule and often cancel a wide range of events. Nearly every branch of the industry, from movies to music to theater, is facing a decision: what to do away with, and when to make that call.

“So many areas are impacted,” said Neil Begley senior vice president at Moody’s who has studied the subject extensively. “There’s a huge risk here, especially for companies that rely on people gathering en masse and can’t defer to another time on the calendar.”

Theatrical movies are the backbone of the entertainment industry, driving not only $11.4 billion in ticket sales last year but fueling viewership on cable and streaming platforms later. Without a strong theatrical business, much of the ecosystem could be disrupted. Yet uncertainty abounds.

The action-adventure reboot “Mulan,” the superhero movie “Black Widow” and animated sequel “Trolls World Tour” are among the films set for release before the end of April that would suffer if theatergoers stay home or governments mandate theater closures.

“I think the movies coming out over the next one to two months are big question marks,” said Bruce Nash, a box office expert at the site The Numbers. He said a dip in traffic on his site for upcoming releases — fans usually flock to the section to garner info about what’s coming up — was a worrisome sign.

The biggest immediate test will be “Quiet Place,” a sequel that opens March 20. The first “Quiet Place” was an unexpected smash in 2018, grossing $340 million around the world on a budget under $20 million, and the new installment is projected to follow suit. But fears over the virus could dampen box office.

Some films have already sought to get out of harm’s way — Sony last week sent James Bond picture “No Time to Die” from April to November. But for many, such moves aren’t an option; the fall is packed, and studios are reluctant to cannibalize one another.

“Moviegoing nationwide was unaffected by coronavirus fears this weekend and attendance was ahead of the weekend before. Theater owners are in contact with public health officials locally and nationally and are heeding their guidance in line with local conditions,” he said. He added the group was moving ahead with its Cinemacon convention in Las Vegas; the late March event, at which studios promote upcoming films to theater owners, draws some 5,000 people.

The March-May window is also home to two major film festivals. The Texas event SXSW, known as South by Southwest, is a showcase for both independent and studio movies. But the city of Austin last week canceled the event, which was to begin Friday, along with associated music and tech gatherings.

Meanwhile, the Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to begin May 12. Cannes is where Oscar best picture “Parasite” premiered and began its magic-carpet ride last year. But France has banned gatherings of more than 1,000 people, throwing the festival into question. The biggest venues contain more than 2,000 seats; many thousands more pack the streets outside theaters. Festival officials have said they are continuing to plan this year’s event.

The period is also critical for music. The festival known as Coachella, run by AEG subsidiary Goldenvoice, is one of the biggest music events in the world. Taking place over two weekends in April in the desert town of Indio, Calif., the event has seen attendance of more than 250,000 and reportedly generated as much as $1.4 billion in profits. This year’s Coachella has scheduled headlining performances by Rage Against the Machine, Travis Scott and Frank Ocean.

The sister country-music festival Stagecoach, taking place the weekend immediately following, is also hugely popular.

New York Magazine contributor Yashar Ali reported late Monday night Coachella was being postponed to October with the identical lineup, with Stagecoach doing the same. A number of other reports followed, citing sources who confirmed the news, with Goldenvoice expected to make an announcement in the next 48 hours.

A petition signed by activists and area residents to cancel the event has attracted at least 15,000 names. The WTA and ATP tennis tours on Sunday canceled their prominent tournament set for this month at nearby Indian Wells.

Another industry with high stakes: Broadway.

Business has been booming. Some 41 Broadway theaters generated $1.75 billion in revenues last year, with more than 90 percent of seats filled — a record. Many shows open between now and the end of April ahead of the deadline for the Tony awards; a first few weeks can doom a production or set it up for years of success.

But the industry is at particular risk for coronavirus. The business relies on many people sitting close together in a congested city. (New York has 16 confirmed cases as of Monday afternoon.) The average age of the Broadwaygoer is in their 40s, with many patrons in their 60s and 70s, a higher-risk demographic according to the CDC. And a fifth of all Broadway attendees last year came from other countries, increasing risk.

The Broadway League, the industry’s trade group, released a statement that it was “closely monitoring the evolving coronavirus situation on behalf of the Broadway community” and enhancing cleaning measures but not presently stopping any shows.

Already some have called for companies with virtual capabilities to step in to help live-dependent productions. National Public Radio’s Nina Gregory created a social-media storm, garnering more than 28,000 likes, when she proposed a virtual SXSW put on by the streaming companies.

“What if Amazon Studios or Netflix or Apple just bought all the films from SXSW and did a SXSW streamer film festival, coronavirus edition,” she wrote. (Amazon’s chef executive is Washington Post owner Jeffrey Bezos.)

The streamers may play another role in the virus fallout. Netflix, Apple TV Plus, Disney Plus and others were founded on the idea that busy lives would drive people to home viewing. Consumers could fill canceled live-entertainment time with a living-room screen.

Several companies are, at least, well-positioned. Apple has just released “Amazing Stories,” its long-expected reboot of the Steven Spielberg classic, while Netflix just debuted the Mark Wahlberg action-comedy “Spenser Confidential.”

Both companies are in the hunt for consumers. “Streaming platforms could be a big beneficiary of people deciding to go to bar and movies and restaurants less,” Moody’s Begley said. “Netflix in particular has been looking for new domestic subscribers as that number has flattened.”

Disney Plus is in a bit of an originals lull until the summer, when several Marvel shows hit. But the company might hope viewers who might have decided to forgo the initial sign up -- 28.6 million are on board -- discover the shows. That could help them if theatrical and theme-park businesses dip.

“Disney has a very diversified strategy that many companies don’t have,” said Dan Rayburn an expert on streaming. “So when something slows down or takes a hit, they have other ways to make money, like via direct-to-consumer, he said, using the industry term for streaming. The company is rolling out Disney Plus across Europe in the coming weeks, at just the moment when Italy and other countries are restricting travel to entertainment venues.

In a tougher predicament are Warner Media’s HBO Max and Comcast’s Peacock. Both companies have been ramping up plans for the service, but won’t be available widely for months – HBO Max in May and Peacock in July.

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2020-03-10 16:24:34Z
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/10/entertainment-business-coronavirus-brings-cancellations-confusion-chaos/
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